The next few months will be critical…

As I write this post, a group of Libyans are meeting under the auspices of the U.N. in Morocco.
Some argue that it is a sham, that the Libyans at the meeting have no real authority even among their respective political blocs back home.  However, this UN sponsored process is the last best hope for a peaceful resolution of the Libyan crisis.  The nascent post-Jamahiriya Libya started off on the wrong foot  and has wasted time, blood, and vast amounts of national wealth due to the lack of the political leadership among the Libyans to find common ground and pragmatic creative solutions to what ails the broken Libyan nation.  Nobody said nation building was easy but the amateur and in some cases criminally negligent efforts of people like Ali Zidan, Thinni, and especially the military adventurism of Mr. Hefter have increased the probability of total collapse of the Libyan experiment.  As a Libyan, I am disheartened to see that the ancient tribal, ethnic, and regional divisions are still alive and well with the added variable of toxic religious zealots adding their own brand of violence to further destabilize Libya.  If the Unity Government takes flight, immediate and positive changes need to take place.

1. The economy needs priority and the oil sector as the lifeblood of the economy needs extra attention.  Production must return to a reasonable level as quickly as possible.  A ban on strikes should be enforced and repair and refurbishment projects initiated.

2. The military needs major reform, removal of the backward thinking and Soviet trained old guard should be accelerated.  Mr. Hefter should be gently pushed aside as he acts as a spoiler and retrograde sensibilities such as his has no place in a future and modern Libya.

3. The health and education sectors also are in a shambles and long term projects undertaken to retain and build up modern health care and education should be started.

4. Border security and verification of citizenship are needed in order to help increase security and reduce welfare and subsidy fraud.

5. Begin a national reconciliation project and engage the populace in an internet/cell phone based app so they can communicate more easily with elected officials or an ombudsman to assist with local issues or questions.

6. Begin the trials of High Value ex-regime and Qaddafi family figures such as Saif al Islam and Saadi Qaddafi, make the trials public, televised, and hold them in Libya but with European Judges who can impartially adjudicate their cases.  The days of Libyan Kangaroo courts must end.

7. Bring in internationally recognized auditors to begin the investigation of the disappearance and probable theft of billions of dollars’ worth of public assets and cash.

8. Begin a campaign of political education among the populace and amateur government officials on the rights and responsibilities of the governed and the governing so that future elections are not merely ignored by an apathetic electorate or treated as a joke by those seeking office.

9. Ensure that term limits and checks and balances on all government posts are instituted so no person can ensconce themselves at the expense of the public good.

10. Begin to decommission all paramilitary groups and either absorb the troops into the Army of Libya or train them for civilian jobs

11. Begin reconstruction of the public space such as Tripoli Airport, clean up Gaddafi’s former stomping grounds Bab Al Aziziya, and create the conditions for large scale rebuilding to start.  Improve the electrical grid and communications and transport networks.

Of course this list is not all inclusive and not meant to be but I hope it can spark some discussion or debate among Libyans who can and should create better ones which can address issues that I have overlooked or are more pressing.  Libya is a nation with a lot of potential and a strategic location but if the Libyans act in a selfish and self-centered manner, the road ahead will be made much more difficult and possibly violent.  It is up to the Libyans to work together and seek help from others where needed.  If Libyans can focus on mutual benefit, rational expectations, and results this will improve the whole of the Middle East as well as Libya. 

  

The Libyan House of Representatives and Hefter's folly

The meteoric rise of Colonel Hefter to his current position as head of the nominal Libyan Armed Forces is astonishing.  In February of 2014 Mr. Hefter attempted to coup his way to the top, when that failed and after being laughed off the political and official military stage, Hefter tried a different route to the seat of power.  The General National Congress created the Frankenstein monster of the Libyan House of Representatives(HOR) and for reasons which still are not clear, decided that it was going to convene in Benghazi, Libya's second city but also then, as now, one of the more dangerous and lawless areas in Libya.  The HOR set up shop in Tobruk instead when it became clear that Benghazi wasn't able to host them properly.

Tobruk is a historical city but one that is not an obvious choice to accommodate the hopes and dreams of Libya's political future.  What it does have, is the protection and proximity to both Hefter and one of his main patrons, Egypt.  Many argued that the HOR needed to be distanced from the militia machinations of Tripoli.  While on the face of it that makes sense, the HOR avoided overt influence from Tripoli or Misratah based militias and instead fell into the Hefter and allied militia orbit.

The current UN sponsored talks are the last best hope to break both factions from the tractor beam like death spiral they have found themselves in but the Hefter led military attacks near Tripoli show that the HOR is not negotiating in good faith.  It has become apparent that the HOR no longer represents the political aspirations or will of the voters but has instead become too much under the spell of Hefter and his foreign backers.

The best and most logical solution to the Libyan dilemma is a political one that respects the majority of Libya's citizens rights and creates the framework for reducing the threat posed by the security vacuum and provides lasting stability.  Libyans suffered for decades from the mafia like political scene created by Ghaddafi which has helped create fertile ground for the current mess Libyans find themselves mired in.

The HOR must negotiate in good faith and remember that they represent all Libyans and not just the 15% of the electorate that put them in office.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/libya-peace-talks-verge-collapse-150321231034000.html