The new Cold War that isn’t

Russia is in a power projection mode while the United States seems to be fumbling in its recent attempts to extend the Pax Americana.  How does this impact Libya and the prospects for peace and stability for the Libyans?  The recent US election has certainly caused a stir among certain factions who see in it a new Trump doctrine of “hands off” or total indifference to the Libyan mess.  The usual suspects among the foreign powers are likely changing their timetables and giving advice to their local actors regarding the next phase of Libyan political and military (d)evolution.

The UN backed government has so far failed to solidify its authority in every region of Libya and even in Tripoli, it seems to be lacking broad support among the populace.  Misratah has so far mostly provided the main serious military opposition to the so-called Libyan National Army based in the Eastern region.  Without rapid economic and security improvement in the West, the Government of National Accord, the UN backed option will end up as the prior experiments did, a wasted and mostly futile effort towards political reconciliation and maturity.

The Eastern region of Libya is the more interesting case in that foreign actors are much more heavily involved in their day to day activities military and otherwise.  Russia has been at the forefront recently by printing currency for the House of Representatives(HOR) dominated Eastern region which circulates along with the British printed currency utilized by the Western based Central Bank of Libya.  Russia, Egypt, the UAE and even France are reportedly involved with supplying, air strikes, weapons, or military advisors for the Hefter led Libyan National Army.  Effectively, the HOR provides a political fig leaf for Hefter and his recent efforts to install military governors across the Eastern Region.  Russia flush with their recent military victories in Syria are expected to try and increase their sphere of influence across the Middle East. 

Col. Gadhafi officially ended the British and American military presence in Libya and it seems his carbon copy, Col. Hefter, wants to welcome the Russian Bear into Libya with open arms.  From a failed and laughable coup attempt in 2014, Mr. Hefter has used the anti-Muslim Brotherhood narrative to great effect.  The UAE is the front man for the likely GCC produced project to if not destroy their main opposition among Sunni Muslims, at least severely weaken it.  Hefter, if he succeeds, will ensure that Libya returns to one party or one family rule.  His retrograde thinking is a relic of his generation’s love of the mythic strongman.  The Father figure who can bring the peace and stability of the open-air prison of a police state.  He promises to recreate the state of the Jamahiriya but without the solid green flag, or at least not such a monochrome flag being front and center. 

Qatar is purportedly, along with Turkey, backing the Western factions of Libya or at least the ones a more religious outlook.  However, Qatar is busy readying itself for the World Cup and Turkey since the coup attempt of 2016 is spinning away from a NATO centric policy and oddly threatening to move towards the Russian orbit.  The Obama administration failed in Syria and allowed Russia’s Putin to outfox them and defend their interests at the cost of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians and the creation of many refugees who are now causing Europe extensive political problems. 

What are Russia’s strategic interests in Libya.  Certainly, they want to recreate or recover their lost relationship with Libya which they enjoyed prior to the Revolution of 2011.  Russia has economic and military objectives in Libya.  Russia lacks an official military installation in the African continent and they apparently were alarmed by the wave of reform brought about by the Arab Spring.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said:  "The chain of 'color revolutions' spreading across the Middle East and Africa has been broken,"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-shoigu-idUSKBN14B1AC

And Russia has financially backed Hefter and his scheme: “Russia printed 4 billion Libyan dinars ($2.8 billion) on contract for the [Eastern] Libyan central bank -- and transferred it to an eastern city that is loyal to the military chief. The money is being used across the country except for Tripoli and the western Misrata region, a hotbed of anti-Haftar sentiment.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/putin-promotes-libyan-strongman-as-new-ally-after-syria-victory

The absence of a coherent European Union(EU) project to stabilize Libya is also puzzling but perhaps expected given the almost rudderless foreign policy strategy of the European political committee.  Brexit and larger world concerns have caused the Libyan portfolio to drop down their priority list but this is a mistake.  Russia is a cunning world player and sees the opportunity to increase its influence in the MENA and encircle western Europe.  The EU should circle their wagons and remind France especially that to hitch their wagon to a Russian backed Hefter is a misguided strategy at best and a major miscalculation at worst.

The United States must now allow Putin’s Russia to encircle Europe via the Balkans, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and exploit their ties with Iran to further erode the NATO alliance.  The future is created in the present and a future with a resurgent and violent Russia is not an idyllic outcome for Libya or the NATO states in general.  The US must take steps to bolster democratic factions in Libya and help it to follow the Tunisia model rather than the bankrupt Egyptian model.  The Libyans grew tired of empty slogans during the Gadhafi regime and the elderly and opportunist Hefter is not a long-term solution for the Libyan puzzle.  NATO, and specifically the United States should work harder to enable pragmatic, positive, and rational political improvement in Libya and a rebooted Jamahiriya with Col. Hefter and his newly commissioned officer son at the helm would be a disaster for all involved.

List of external Russian Military bases

The New Libyan Constitution and the political environment

The origin of the current Libyan quagmire (short version)

In 1969 Libya went through major change that initially heralded a new and more egalitarian future.  However, the ever opportunistic Gadhafi, his tribe, and their allies wasted little time to fully consolidate their power and monopolize Libya as their fiefdom.  Libyans generally were trained to be a passive and reactive people by the Ottomans, Italians, the Senussi monarchy, and then the reign of Gadhafi extended the lack of reasonable political participation by the average Libyan.  The young and newly installed Gadhafi put on a show of empowering various sectors of his society and all the while trying to pit them against each other, rich versus poor, home owner versus renter, young against old, and even parents and their children were not immune  to his paranoid police state and its bizarre wedge politics.  Gadhafi had claimed that hereditary rule was incompatible with true political theory and doctrine but he was more than willing to have his sons take over the family business when he was good and ready. 

It took 42 years before events transpired whereby Gadhafi finally lost his franchise over the Libyan nation and his family was forced to flee.  Many Libyans rejoiced and exiles returned ostensibly to help first the revolution and then the transition to a new democratic Libya.  Senussi monarchy nostalgia was again in the open and the new General National Congress(GNC) government squandered billions in cash grants, theft, waste, corruption, and criminal negligence on a scale that is yet to be properly documented.  In spite of the chaos and GNC missteps, most Libyans believed that Libya was on the way to political pluralism and progress. 

The post 2011 environment

The number of political parties bloomed and Libyan were free to discuss politics and vote in mostly free and fair elections for the first time in decades.  Regional politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood variety which originated in neighboring Egypt became a large part of the discussion as well as a so called secularist party grouping led by prominent former Gadhafi advisor and rebel NTC leader during the 2011 revolution, Mahmoud Gibril.  The dominant narrative which was fostered was that the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Justice and Construction(AB) party, was actually a front for Egyptian based interests.  The scapegoating reached such an extent that many blamed the AB for almost anything that went wrong in Libya and their opponents used their political naiveté and the lack of economic and social progress in Libya to paint them in a fairly bad light.  Make no mistake, the AB and their allies share some of the blame for the political failures that have led us to the current crisis but they are not the main source of concern that many critics and analysts make them out to be. 

The average Libyan was quick to point out the lack of reliable electrical service, security, modern healthcare, education, and infrastructure in Libya.  In a world where 5G cell phone service is around the corner, Libyans are stuck in a 2G time warp and they need to have two government owned cell phone carriers to provide what passes for complete cell phone reception.  The political landscape in Libya in 2012-2016 rapidly deteriorated into an almost farcical and fractious group of Congressmen and women who achieved little but spending money on things that didn’t provide long term benefit for their constituents.  The political anarchy helped create a country where multi-million dollar bank heists were only rivaled by the billions of dollars that disappeared into thin air or were used to purchase arms from the UAE and other sources that were then used in various internecine shooting matches between various competing regional or even private militias.  A small hamlet named Zintan which performed admirably in the 2011 revolution apparently was rewarded with control of the capital’s airport which soon became a money making enterprise not for the State, but for Zintani interests and their militias.  The Libyan second city of Benghazi descended into chaos and the incompetent GNC made the disastrous decision to locate their successor, the House of Representatives(HOR).  To this day, Libyan politicians are paid a princely salary and often are out of the country or don’t show up for work and this includes the members of the defunct GNC and the HOR whose initial term has already expired.

Political theater

Average Libyans put their fail in the new Libyan leadership cadre such as Mgarief, Zidan, and Thinni.  All of these men failed to deliver meaningful and construction improvements in Libya.  If asked, they can say that they were hobbled by the culture of militia and the collapse in oil production.  The Libyan ability to finger point is only rivaled by the near constant strikes and work disruptions staged by unions or tribes or even small groups of disgruntled gunmen.  The trust given to the leadership and their administrations was misplaced and billions, precious time, and even more importantly lives were lost due to the utter incompetence of the nascent Libyan government. 

The US provides a stark contrast to Libya, Americans have the luxury of professional politicians who often work their way up from local to state to national government offices.  Most Americans therefore feel little need to get too involved in politics beyond occasionally voting or perhaps calling their congressman or sending them an email.  In Libya however, carpet baggers, charlatans, and uneducated holdovers from the previous regime comprise the politicians who prey on the hopes and dreams of the novice voters of Libya.  Having amateurs running a modern state is not a good foundation for a progressive and rational government.  Especially for a country like Libya which has been fought over for thousands of years and has vast wealth and potential.

The Tarhouni Constitution

Mr. Ali Tarhouni has been interested in helping create the post-revolution Libyan Constitution since at least 2011.  The oft delayed Constituion has cost millions and has yet to be delivered for the approval or even widespread discussion of its merits.  The release of a “final” draft only creates further cause for concern and begs the question; “Can the Libyans get a refund?”