Russia is in a power projection mode while the United States
seems to be fumbling in its recent attempts to extend the Pax Americana. How does this impact Libya and the prospects
for peace and stability for the Libyans?
The recent US election has certainly caused a stir among certain
factions who see in it a new Trump doctrine of “hands off” or total
indifference to the Libyan mess. The
usual suspects among the foreign powers are likely changing their timetables
and giving advice to their local actors regarding the next phase of Libyan
political and military (d)evolution.
The UN backed government has so far failed to solidify its
authority in every region of Libya and even in Tripoli, it seems to be lacking
broad support among the populace.
Misratah has so far mostly provided the main serious military opposition
to the so-called Libyan National Army based in the Eastern region. Without rapid economic and security
improvement in the West, the Government of National Accord, the UN backed
option will end up as the prior experiments did, a wasted and mostly futile
effort towards political reconciliation and maturity.
The Eastern region of Libya is the more interesting case in
that foreign actors are much more heavily involved in their day to day
activities military and otherwise.
Russia has been at the forefront recently by printing currency for the
House of Representatives(HOR) dominated Eastern region which circulates along with
the British printed currency utilized by the Western based Central Bank of
Libya. Russia, Egypt, the UAE and even
France are reportedly involved with supplying, air strikes, weapons, or
military advisors for the Hefter led Libyan National Army. Effectively, the HOR provides a political fig
leaf for Hefter and his recent efforts to install military governors across the
Eastern Region. Russia flush with their
recent military victories in Syria are expected to try and increase their
sphere of influence across the Middle East.
Col. Gadhafi officially ended the British and American
military presence in Libya and it seems his carbon copy, Col. Hefter, wants to
welcome the Russian Bear into Libya with open arms. From a failed and laughable coup attempt in
2014, Mr. Hefter has used the anti-Muslim Brotherhood narrative to great
effect. The UAE is the front man for the
likely GCC produced project to if not destroy their main opposition among Sunni
Muslims, at least severely weaken it.
Hefter, if he succeeds, will ensure that Libya returns to one party or
one family rule. His retrograde thinking
is a relic of his generation’s love of the mythic strongman. The Father figure who can bring the peace and
stability of the open-air prison of a police state. He promises to recreate the state of the Jamahiriya
but without the solid green flag, or at least not such a monochrome flag being
front and center.
Qatar is purportedly, along with Turkey, backing the Western
factions of Libya or at least the ones a more religious outlook. However, Qatar is busy readying itself for
the World Cup and Turkey since the coup attempt of 2016 is spinning away from a
NATO centric policy and oddly threatening to move towards the Russian
orbit. The Obama administration failed
in Syria and allowed Russia’s Putin to outfox them and defend their interests
at the cost of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians and the creation of many
refugees who are now causing Europe extensive political problems.
What are Russia’s strategic interests in Libya. Certainly, they want to recreate or recover
their lost relationship with Libya which they enjoyed prior to the Revolution
of 2011. Russia has economic and
military objectives in Libya. Russia
lacks an official military installation in the African continent and they
apparently were alarmed by the wave of reform brought about by the Arab Spring. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
said: "The chain of 'color
revolutions' spreading across the Middle East and Africa has been broken,"
And Russia has financially backed Hefter and his scheme: “Russia
printed 4 billion Libyan dinars ($2.8 billion) on contract for the
[Eastern] Libyan central bank -- and transferred it to an eastern city that is
loyal to the military chief. The money is being used across the country except
for Tripoli and the western Misrata region, a hotbed of anti-Haftar sentiment.”
The absence of a coherent European Union(EU) project to
stabilize Libya is also puzzling but perhaps expected given the almost
rudderless foreign policy strategy of the European political committee. Brexit and larger world concerns have caused
the Libyan portfolio to drop down their priority list but this is a
mistake. Russia is a cunning world
player and sees the opportunity to increase its influence in the MENA and
encircle western Europe. The EU should
circle their wagons and remind France especially that to hitch their wagon to a
Russian backed Hefter is a misguided strategy at best and a major
miscalculation at worst.
The United States must now allow Putin’s Russia to encircle
Europe via the Balkans, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and exploit their ties
with Iran to further erode the NATO alliance.
The future is created in the present and a future with a resurgent and violent
Russia is not an idyllic outcome for Libya or the NATO states in general. The US must take steps to bolster democratic
factions in Libya and help it to follow the Tunisia model rather than the
bankrupt Egyptian model. The Libyans
grew tired of empty slogans during the Gadhafi regime and the elderly and
opportunist Hefter is not a long-term solution for the Libyan puzzle. NATO, and specifically the United States should
work harder to enable pragmatic, positive, and rational political improvement
in Libya and a rebooted Jamahiriya with Col. Hefter and his newly commissioned
officer son at the helm would be a disaster for all involved.
