The End of History: An Epilogue

2020 has so far been a tumultuous and tragedy filled year.  The global pandemic has caused a great loss of life as well as economic damage which will take years to recover from.  This new decade also portends a continued rise in fascism and decline in many of many aspects of western style democracy.  Overt colonialism has in many cases been replaced by empire building by proxy.  Examples of this include Syria and Libya.

In both of these countries, Turkey and Russia are leading players in the Great Game.  Russia's Putin is a Czar in everything but name and Erdogan of Turkey is a Neo-Ottoman Sultan.  The reasons for this are many but chiefly, the lack of leadership from the European Union(EU) and the willful neglect of the United States(US) are the main factor.  The US has sought to refocus its attention to domestic issues of late and perhaps thought that the EU was better suited to handling the problems of the southern and eastern Mediterranean.

What happens when the sick man of Europe is Europe itself?

So far the EU project is dysfunctional to say the least.  Germany, the most important member of the EU is hobbled politically and militarily due to the residual feelings towards them since World War 2.  France is a perennial loser except surprisingly in the World Cup.  England smartly jumped ship from the EU camp and now the triumvirate is a farcical duopoly as a result.  Russia has outplayed the EU and it's not likely that the Germans will be able to muster a coherent policy for the Mediterranean and Libya.

The future of Libya is currently being decided and sadly, the Libyans themselves have little to say on the matter.  As in the movie "Laurence of Arabia," the tribes and city states are too busy fighting with each other and for others to effectively reconcile and begin to stabilize their nation.  Col. Hefter is backed by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, the UAE, and others.  While his main opponents in Tripoli and Misratah,  Col. Hefter has always had a surplus of ambition but is sorely lacking in leadership and military skill.  When he served under Col. Gadaffi, he fought the French and their Chadian clients and was captured while busy with sleep.  Having been rescued by the US from imprisonment or worse if he had been given back to Gadaffi, he now counts bizarrely on French political and military support.  As a life long traitor, Col. Hefter is not fit to rule and has proven to be simply another power hungry old man more suited to a villa in Saudi Arabia or the UAE than leading a modern state.

The future of Libya and the MENA

Africa is already becoming a continent courted by all the major powers.  As mentioned, Russia seeks power and influence in Russia and has mercenaries in more than one country.  Russia has recently escalated it's footprint by moving more modern aircraft into Libya in a thinly veiled attempt to bolster their client Col. Hefter.  China has numerous economic interests throughout and a major coastal military installation.  The United States also is involved to one degree or another in Africa but more is needed.

If the US has decided not to directly engage in Libya it should work with Turkey to establish a Muslim-Christian bulwark against China and to a lesser extent Russia.  A stronger and revived relationship with Turkey will have the added benefit of providing a counter-narrative to the clash of civilizations ideology of the radical Islamist.

If history is any guide, Libya is a strategic region with vast potential.  Carthage, the Romans, the Ottomans all had a presence there and Africa is the least developed continent economically and therefore has the most upside potential if only rational systems can be established.  If Europe wants to lessen the massive underground immigration from Africa, then Africans have to have less reasons to escape from their home nations.  Clearly, millions have immigrated to the USA for freedom and a better standard of living for themselves and their children and Africans are now doing the same in Europe.

European natives are alarmed at the rapid demographic shifts but trying to make Libya into yet another open air prison is not the solution.  One of the major strengths of Western Civilization is creativity and an openness to rational change.  The US must, as it did in both world wars and since, again help the parade ground army of France and the currently defanged Germans find a way out of their lethargic bureaucracy to a robust plan to improve the situation in Libya before it's too late.  The marines may not need to return again to the shores of Tripoli but positive American influence should.   



   

I will be posting a new blog entry soon

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An open letter to my fellow Libyans and especially fanboys and fangirls of Col. Hefter:

I write this today at the start of a new year and new possibilities for the Libyan Nation.  In 2011 with help from the rest of the world, the Libyan people finally managed to rid themselves of the backward and inbred House of Gadhafi and their mafia like political structure.  Sure, Gadhafi cloaked himself in the dogma of revolutionary democracy, his Green Book, and a so-called “state of the masses” but his government was a kingdom in everything but name.  Gadhafi had overthrown his King and put himself and then one of his sons in line of succession to the Chair.

Now, due to infighting, corruption, and outright stupidity the Libyans are facing the prospect of a foreign sponsored regime headed by one of Gadhafi’s ex-flunkies:  Col. Hefter.  Hefter was there with the group of Gadhafi plotters in 1969.  Hefter led the disastrous campaign in Chad which his brother leader Gadhafi so foolishly embarked upon.  Col. Hefter was captured along with his men due to the complete incompetence of Hefter and his command.  Once he was disowned by his patron Gadhafi, Hefter realized that he was against the Jamahiriya.  The CIA then saved him and he joined up with the rest of the unsuccessful National Front for the Salvation of Libya who were one of the groups opposed to the regime of Gadhafi.  He lived for many years in the same area as the Headquarters of the CIA in the Eastern USA.

During the 2011 revolution which toppled Gadhafi, Col. Hefter returned to try and regain his spot in the Libyan limelight.  After the death of Gadhafi, rather than work to ensure that a new generation of military men took charge, leaders not so burdened by the baggage that Hefter carries and the failed Soviet training that he received, Hefter tried to increase his power.   His family apparently also wanted in on the action.  One of his own sons is reputed to have been shot during an attempt to make an unauthorized cash withdrawal from a bank.  In early 2014, not happy with his position, Hefter announced a stillborn coup attempt which was totally rejected by the Libyan people but even then he wasn’t ready to retire.

Hefter is a man of limited military successes but does have name recognition and is a known entity in the Libyan military-political sphere.  His ongoing and three year plus Operation Dignity hasn’t fully pacified Benghazi but he has hijacked the Libyan political process and does have patrons among the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt, Russia, France, and possibly others.  Rather than pursue a course of national reconciliation and peace, Hefter paints everything as a black and white struggle against what he sees as a radical religious threat.  Col. Hefter rather than putting the interests of the Libyan Nation first, puts his, his family’s, and his tribe’s well-being and position as the paramount concern.  He has refused to meet the UN sponsored Prime Minister Mr. Faez Sirraj and his military administration has been busy replacing elected officials with military governors.

The internationally recognized parliament, the House of Representatives has dragged their feet and impeded every opportunity for a public and open debate and vote on accepting the Government of National Accord.  It is obvious to even the most partisan observer that the HOR will not and cannot accept the GNA because that would mean the Hefter would lose power and his project is likely to fail.  Hefter promises to eliminate the threat of political Islam which many liberals, secularists, and so called progressives want to see happen.  However, in spite of decades of Gadhafi’s Jamahiriya utilizing severe repression, torture, and executions this was not accomplished. 

Anti-Democratic strains of political Islam should be confronted but not with the failed policies of the past.  The younger generations and population in general must not be given a binary choice to the political future they want and that will bring much needed improvements culturally and economically.  Any convicted criminal with or without a religious agenda deserves to be punished and resisted but there must be a free exchange of ideas and a free debate about the political future of Libya and Col. Hefter and his backers do not offer that to the Libyans.  Col. Hefter wants to impose his worldview and enrich himself and his family at the expense of the Libyan nation and he must be stopped.      

The new Cold War that isn’t

Russia is in a power projection mode while the United States seems to be fumbling in its recent attempts to extend the Pax Americana.  How does this impact Libya and the prospects for peace and stability for the Libyans?  The recent US election has certainly caused a stir among certain factions who see in it a new Trump doctrine of “hands off” or total indifference to the Libyan mess.  The usual suspects among the foreign powers are likely changing their timetables and giving advice to their local actors regarding the next phase of Libyan political and military (d)evolution.

The UN backed government has so far failed to solidify its authority in every region of Libya and even in Tripoli, it seems to be lacking broad support among the populace.  Misratah has so far mostly provided the main serious military opposition to the so-called Libyan National Army based in the Eastern region.  Without rapid economic and security improvement in the West, the Government of National Accord, the UN backed option will end up as the prior experiments did, a wasted and mostly futile effort towards political reconciliation and maturity.

The Eastern region of Libya is the more interesting case in that foreign actors are much more heavily involved in their day to day activities military and otherwise.  Russia has been at the forefront recently by printing currency for the House of Representatives(HOR) dominated Eastern region which circulates along with the British printed currency utilized by the Western based Central Bank of Libya.  Russia, Egypt, the UAE and even France are reportedly involved with supplying, air strikes, weapons, or military advisors for the Hefter led Libyan National Army.  Effectively, the HOR provides a political fig leaf for Hefter and his recent efforts to install military governors across the Eastern Region.  Russia flush with their recent military victories in Syria are expected to try and increase their sphere of influence across the Middle East. 

Col. Gadhafi officially ended the British and American military presence in Libya and it seems his carbon copy, Col. Hefter, wants to welcome the Russian Bear into Libya with open arms.  From a failed and laughable coup attempt in 2014, Mr. Hefter has used the anti-Muslim Brotherhood narrative to great effect.  The UAE is the front man for the likely GCC produced project to if not destroy their main opposition among Sunni Muslims, at least severely weaken it.  Hefter, if he succeeds, will ensure that Libya returns to one party or one family rule.  His retrograde thinking is a relic of his generation’s love of the mythic strongman.  The Father figure who can bring the peace and stability of the open-air prison of a police state.  He promises to recreate the state of the Jamahiriya but without the solid green flag, or at least not such a monochrome flag being front and center. 

Qatar is purportedly, along with Turkey, backing the Western factions of Libya or at least the ones a more religious outlook.  However, Qatar is busy readying itself for the World Cup and Turkey since the coup attempt of 2016 is spinning away from a NATO centric policy and oddly threatening to move towards the Russian orbit.  The Obama administration failed in Syria and allowed Russia’s Putin to outfox them and defend their interests at the cost of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians and the creation of many refugees who are now causing Europe extensive political problems. 

What are Russia’s strategic interests in Libya.  Certainly, they want to recreate or recover their lost relationship with Libya which they enjoyed prior to the Revolution of 2011.  Russia has economic and military objectives in Libya.  Russia lacks an official military installation in the African continent and they apparently were alarmed by the wave of reform brought about by the Arab Spring.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said:  "The chain of 'color revolutions' spreading across the Middle East and Africa has been broken,"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-shoigu-idUSKBN14B1AC

And Russia has financially backed Hefter and his scheme: “Russia printed 4 billion Libyan dinars ($2.8 billion) on contract for the [Eastern] Libyan central bank -- and transferred it to an eastern city that is loyal to the military chief. The money is being used across the country except for Tripoli and the western Misrata region, a hotbed of anti-Haftar sentiment.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/putin-promotes-libyan-strongman-as-new-ally-after-syria-victory

The absence of a coherent European Union(EU) project to stabilize Libya is also puzzling but perhaps expected given the almost rudderless foreign policy strategy of the European political committee.  Brexit and larger world concerns have caused the Libyan portfolio to drop down their priority list but this is a mistake.  Russia is a cunning world player and sees the opportunity to increase its influence in the MENA and encircle western Europe.  The EU should circle their wagons and remind France especially that to hitch their wagon to a Russian backed Hefter is a misguided strategy at best and a major miscalculation at worst.

The United States must now allow Putin’s Russia to encircle Europe via the Balkans, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and exploit their ties with Iran to further erode the NATO alliance.  The future is created in the present and a future with a resurgent and violent Russia is not an idyllic outcome for Libya or the NATO states in general.  The US must take steps to bolster democratic factions in Libya and help it to follow the Tunisia model rather than the bankrupt Egyptian model.  The Libyans grew tired of empty slogans during the Gadhafi regime and the elderly and opportunist Hefter is not a long-term solution for the Libyan puzzle.  NATO, and specifically the United States should work harder to enable pragmatic, positive, and rational political improvement in Libya and a rebooted Jamahiriya with Col. Hefter and his newly commissioned officer son at the helm would be a disaster for all involved.

List of external Russian Military bases

The New Libyan Constitution and the political environment

The origin of the current Libyan quagmire (short version)

In 1969 Libya went through major change that initially heralded a new and more egalitarian future.  However, the ever opportunistic Gadhafi, his tribe, and their allies wasted little time to fully consolidate their power and monopolize Libya as their fiefdom.  Libyans generally were trained to be a passive and reactive people by the Ottomans, Italians, the Senussi monarchy, and then the reign of Gadhafi extended the lack of reasonable political participation by the average Libyan.  The young and newly installed Gadhafi put on a show of empowering various sectors of his society and all the while trying to pit them against each other, rich versus poor, home owner versus renter, young against old, and even parents and their children were not immune  to his paranoid police state and its bizarre wedge politics.  Gadhafi had claimed that hereditary rule was incompatible with true political theory and doctrine but he was more than willing to have his sons take over the family business when he was good and ready. 

It took 42 years before events transpired whereby Gadhafi finally lost his franchise over the Libyan nation and his family was forced to flee.  Many Libyans rejoiced and exiles returned ostensibly to help first the revolution and then the transition to a new democratic Libya.  Senussi monarchy nostalgia was again in the open and the new General National Congress(GNC) government squandered billions in cash grants, theft, waste, corruption, and criminal negligence on a scale that is yet to be properly documented.  In spite of the chaos and GNC missteps, most Libyans believed that Libya was on the way to political pluralism and progress. 

The post 2011 environment

The number of political parties bloomed and Libyan were free to discuss politics and vote in mostly free and fair elections for the first time in decades.  Regional politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood variety which originated in neighboring Egypt became a large part of the discussion as well as a so called secularist party grouping led by prominent former Gadhafi advisor and rebel NTC leader during the 2011 revolution, Mahmoud Gibril.  The dominant narrative which was fostered was that the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Justice and Construction(AB) party, was actually a front for Egyptian based interests.  The scapegoating reached such an extent that many blamed the AB for almost anything that went wrong in Libya and their opponents used their political naiveté and the lack of economic and social progress in Libya to paint them in a fairly bad light.  Make no mistake, the AB and their allies share some of the blame for the political failures that have led us to the current crisis but they are not the main source of concern that many critics and analysts make them out to be. 

The average Libyan was quick to point out the lack of reliable electrical service, security, modern healthcare, education, and infrastructure in Libya.  In a world where 5G cell phone service is around the corner, Libyans are stuck in a 2G time warp and they need to have two government owned cell phone carriers to provide what passes for complete cell phone reception.  The political landscape in Libya in 2012-2016 rapidly deteriorated into an almost farcical and fractious group of Congressmen and women who achieved little but spending money on things that didn’t provide long term benefit for their constituents.  The political anarchy helped create a country where multi-million dollar bank heists were only rivaled by the billions of dollars that disappeared into thin air or were used to purchase arms from the UAE and other sources that were then used in various internecine shooting matches between various competing regional or even private militias.  A small hamlet named Zintan which performed admirably in the 2011 revolution apparently was rewarded with control of the capital’s airport which soon became a money making enterprise not for the State, but for Zintani interests and their militias.  The Libyan second city of Benghazi descended into chaos and the incompetent GNC made the disastrous decision to locate their successor, the House of Representatives(HOR).  To this day, Libyan politicians are paid a princely salary and often are out of the country or don’t show up for work and this includes the members of the defunct GNC and the HOR whose initial term has already expired.

Political theater

Average Libyans put their fail in the new Libyan leadership cadre such as Mgarief, Zidan, and Thinni.  All of these men failed to deliver meaningful and construction improvements in Libya.  If asked, they can say that they were hobbled by the culture of militia and the collapse in oil production.  The Libyan ability to finger point is only rivaled by the near constant strikes and work disruptions staged by unions or tribes or even small groups of disgruntled gunmen.  The trust given to the leadership and their administrations was misplaced and billions, precious time, and even more importantly lives were lost due to the utter incompetence of the nascent Libyan government. 

The US provides a stark contrast to Libya, Americans have the luxury of professional politicians who often work their way up from local to state to national government offices.  Most Americans therefore feel little need to get too involved in politics beyond occasionally voting or perhaps calling their congressman or sending them an email.  In Libya however, carpet baggers, charlatans, and uneducated holdovers from the previous regime comprise the politicians who prey on the hopes and dreams of the novice voters of Libya.  Having amateurs running a modern state is not a good foundation for a progressive and rational government.  Especially for a country like Libya which has been fought over for thousands of years and has vast wealth and potential.

The Tarhouni Constitution

Mr. Ali Tarhouni has been interested in helping create the post-revolution Libyan Constitution since at least 2011.  The oft delayed Constituion has cost millions and has yet to be delivered for the approval or even widespread discussion of its merits.  The release of a “final” draft only creates further cause for concern and begs the question; “Can the Libyans get a refund?”     

The next few months will be critical…

As I write this post, a group of Libyans are meeting under the auspices of the U.N. in Morocco.
Some argue that it is a sham, that the Libyans at the meeting have no real authority even among their respective political blocs back home.  However, this UN sponsored process is the last best hope for a peaceful resolution of the Libyan crisis.  The nascent post-Jamahiriya Libya started off on the wrong foot  and has wasted time, blood, and vast amounts of national wealth due to the lack of the political leadership among the Libyans to find common ground and pragmatic creative solutions to what ails the broken Libyan nation.  Nobody said nation building was easy but the amateur and in some cases criminally negligent efforts of people like Ali Zidan, Thinni, and especially the military adventurism of Mr. Hefter have increased the probability of total collapse of the Libyan experiment.  As a Libyan, I am disheartened to see that the ancient tribal, ethnic, and regional divisions are still alive and well with the added variable of toxic religious zealots adding their own brand of violence to further destabilize Libya.  If the Unity Government takes flight, immediate and positive changes need to take place.

1. The economy needs priority and the oil sector as the lifeblood of the economy needs extra attention.  Production must return to a reasonable level as quickly as possible.  A ban on strikes should be enforced and repair and refurbishment projects initiated.

2. The military needs major reform, removal of the backward thinking and Soviet trained old guard should be accelerated.  Mr. Hefter should be gently pushed aside as he acts as a spoiler and retrograde sensibilities such as his has no place in a future and modern Libya.

3. The health and education sectors also are in a shambles and long term projects undertaken to retain and build up modern health care and education should be started.

4. Border security and verification of citizenship are needed in order to help increase security and reduce welfare and subsidy fraud.

5. Begin a national reconciliation project and engage the populace in an internet/cell phone based app so they can communicate more easily with elected officials or an ombudsman to assist with local issues or questions.

6. Begin the trials of High Value ex-regime and Qaddafi family figures such as Saif al Islam and Saadi Qaddafi, make the trials public, televised, and hold them in Libya but with European Judges who can impartially adjudicate their cases.  The days of Libyan Kangaroo courts must end.

7. Bring in internationally recognized auditors to begin the investigation of the disappearance and probable theft of billions of dollars’ worth of public assets and cash.

8. Begin a campaign of political education among the populace and amateur government officials on the rights and responsibilities of the governed and the governing so that future elections are not merely ignored by an apathetic electorate or treated as a joke by those seeking office.

9. Ensure that term limits and checks and balances on all government posts are instituted so no person can ensconce themselves at the expense of the public good.

10. Begin to decommission all paramilitary groups and either absorb the troops into the Army of Libya or train them for civilian jobs

11. Begin reconstruction of the public space such as Tripoli Airport, clean up Gaddafi’s former stomping grounds Bab Al Aziziya, and create the conditions for large scale rebuilding to start.  Improve the electrical grid and communications and transport networks.

Of course this list is not all inclusive and not meant to be but I hope it can spark some discussion or debate among Libyans who can and should create better ones which can address issues that I have overlooked or are more pressing.  Libya is a nation with a lot of potential and a strategic location but if the Libyans act in a selfish and self-centered manner, the road ahead will be made much more difficult and possibly violent.  It is up to the Libyans to work together and seek help from others where needed.  If Libyans can focus on mutual benefit, rational expectations, and results this will improve the whole of the Middle East as well as Libya. 

  

The Libyan House of Representatives and Hefter's folly

The meteoric rise of Colonel Hefter to his current position as head of the nominal Libyan Armed Forces is astonishing.  In February of 2014 Mr. Hefter attempted to coup his way to the top, when that failed and after being laughed off the political and official military stage, Hefter tried a different route to the seat of power.  The General National Congress created the Frankenstein monster of the Libyan House of Representatives(HOR) and for reasons which still are not clear, decided that it was going to convene in Benghazi, Libya's second city but also then, as now, one of the more dangerous and lawless areas in Libya.  The HOR set up shop in Tobruk instead when it became clear that Benghazi wasn't able to host them properly.

Tobruk is a historical city but one that is not an obvious choice to accommodate the hopes and dreams of Libya's political future.  What it does have, is the protection and proximity to both Hefter and one of his main patrons, Egypt.  Many argued that the HOR needed to be distanced from the militia machinations of Tripoli.  While on the face of it that makes sense, the HOR avoided overt influence from Tripoli or Misratah based militias and instead fell into the Hefter and allied militia orbit.

The current UN sponsored talks are the last best hope to break both factions from the tractor beam like death spiral they have found themselves in but the Hefter led military attacks near Tripoli show that the HOR is not negotiating in good faith.  It has become apparent that the HOR no longer represents the political aspirations or will of the voters but has instead become too much under the spell of Hefter and his foreign backers.

The best and most logical solution to the Libyan dilemma is a political one that respects the majority of Libya's citizens rights and creates the framework for reducing the threat posed by the security vacuum and provides lasting stability.  Libyans suffered for decades from the mafia like political scene created by Ghaddafi which has helped create fertile ground for the current mess Libyans find themselves mired in.

The HOR must negotiate in good faith and remember that they represent all Libyans and not just the 15% of the electorate that put them in office.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/libya-peace-talks-verge-collapse-150321231034000.html