2020 has so far been a tumultuous and tragedy filled year. The global pandemic has caused a great loss of life as well as economic damage which will take years to recover from. This new decade also portends a continued rise in fascism and decline in many of many aspects of western style democracy. Overt colonialism has in many cases been replaced by empire building by proxy. Examples of this include Syria and Libya.
In both of these countries, Turkey and Russia are leading players in the Great Game. Russia's Putin is a Czar in everything but name and Erdogan of Turkey is a Neo-Ottoman Sultan. The reasons for this are many but chiefly, the lack of leadership from the European Union(EU) and the willful neglect of the United States(US) are the main factor. The US has sought to refocus its attention to domestic issues of late and perhaps thought that the EU was better suited to handling the problems of the southern and eastern Mediterranean.
What happens when the sick man of Europe is Europe itself?
So far the EU project is dysfunctional to say the least. Germany, the most important member of the EU is hobbled politically and militarily due to the residual feelings towards them since World War 2. France is a perennial loser except surprisingly in the World Cup. England smartly jumped ship from the EU camp and now the triumvirate is a farcical duopoly as a result. Russia has outplayed the EU and it's not likely that the Germans will be able to muster a coherent policy for the Mediterranean and Libya.
The future of Libya is currently being decided and sadly, the Libyans themselves have little to say on the matter. As in the movie "Laurence of Arabia," the tribes and city states are too busy fighting with each other and for others to effectively reconcile and begin to stabilize their nation. Col. Hefter is backed by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, the UAE, and others. While his main opponents in Tripoli and Misratah, Col. Hefter has always had a surplus of ambition but is sorely lacking in leadership and military skill. When he served under Col. Gadaffi, he fought the French and their Chadian clients and was captured while busy with sleep. Having been rescued by the US from imprisonment or worse if he had been given back to Gadaffi, he now counts bizarrely on French political and military support. As a life long traitor, Col. Hefter is not fit to rule and has proven to be simply another power hungry old man more suited to a villa in Saudi Arabia or the UAE than leading a modern state.
The future of Libya and the MENA
Africa is already becoming a continent courted by all the major powers. As mentioned, Russia seeks power and influence in Russia and has mercenaries in more than one country. Russia has recently escalated it's footprint by moving more modern aircraft into Libya in a thinly veiled attempt to bolster their client Col. Hefter. China has numerous economic interests throughout and a major coastal military installation. The United States also is involved to one degree or another in Africa but more is needed.
If the US has decided not to directly engage in Libya it should work with Turkey to establish a Muslim-Christian bulwark against China and to a lesser extent Russia. A stronger and revived relationship with Turkey will have the added benefit of providing a counter-narrative to the clash of civilizations ideology of the radical Islamist.
If history is any guide, Libya is a strategic region with vast potential. Carthage, the Romans, the Ottomans all had a presence there and Africa is the least developed continent economically and therefore has the most upside potential if only rational systems can be established. If Europe wants to lessen the massive underground immigration from Africa, then Africans have to have less reasons to escape from their home nations. Clearly, millions have immigrated to the USA for freedom and a better standard of living for themselves and their children and Africans are now doing the same in Europe.
European natives are alarmed at the rapid demographic shifts but trying to make Libya into yet another open air prison is not the solution. One of the major strengths of Western Civilization is creativity and an openness to rational change. The US must, as it did in both world wars and since, again help the parade ground army of France and the currently defanged Germans find a way out of their lethargic bureaucracy to a robust plan to improve the situation in Libya before it's too late. The marines may not need to return again to the shores of Tripoli but positive American influence should.
In both of these countries, Turkey and Russia are leading players in the Great Game. Russia's Putin is a Czar in everything but name and Erdogan of Turkey is a Neo-Ottoman Sultan. The reasons for this are many but chiefly, the lack of leadership from the European Union(EU) and the willful neglect of the United States(US) are the main factor. The US has sought to refocus its attention to domestic issues of late and perhaps thought that the EU was better suited to handling the problems of the southern and eastern Mediterranean.
What happens when the sick man of Europe is Europe itself?
So far the EU project is dysfunctional to say the least. Germany, the most important member of the EU is hobbled politically and militarily due to the residual feelings towards them since World War 2. France is a perennial loser except surprisingly in the World Cup. England smartly jumped ship from the EU camp and now the triumvirate is a farcical duopoly as a result. Russia has outplayed the EU and it's not likely that the Germans will be able to muster a coherent policy for the Mediterranean and Libya.
The future of Libya is currently being decided and sadly, the Libyans themselves have little to say on the matter. As in the movie "Laurence of Arabia," the tribes and city states are too busy fighting with each other and for others to effectively reconcile and begin to stabilize their nation. Col. Hefter is backed by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, the UAE, and others. While his main opponents in Tripoli and Misratah, Col. Hefter has always had a surplus of ambition but is sorely lacking in leadership and military skill. When he served under Col. Gadaffi, he fought the French and their Chadian clients and was captured while busy with sleep. Having been rescued by the US from imprisonment or worse if he had been given back to Gadaffi, he now counts bizarrely on French political and military support. As a life long traitor, Col. Hefter is not fit to rule and has proven to be simply another power hungry old man more suited to a villa in Saudi Arabia or the UAE than leading a modern state.
The future of Libya and the MENA
Africa is already becoming a continent courted by all the major powers. As mentioned, Russia seeks power and influence in Russia and has mercenaries in more than one country. Russia has recently escalated it's footprint by moving more modern aircraft into Libya in a thinly veiled attempt to bolster their client Col. Hefter. China has numerous economic interests throughout and a major coastal military installation. The United States also is involved to one degree or another in Africa but more is needed.
If the US has decided not to directly engage in Libya it should work with Turkey to establish a Muslim-Christian bulwark against China and to a lesser extent Russia. A stronger and revived relationship with Turkey will have the added benefit of providing a counter-narrative to the clash of civilizations ideology of the radical Islamist.
If history is any guide, Libya is a strategic region with vast potential. Carthage, the Romans, the Ottomans all had a presence there and Africa is the least developed continent economically and therefore has the most upside potential if only rational systems can be established. If Europe wants to lessen the massive underground immigration from Africa, then Africans have to have less reasons to escape from their home nations. Clearly, millions have immigrated to the USA for freedom and a better standard of living for themselves and their children and Africans are now doing the same in Europe.
European natives are alarmed at the rapid demographic shifts but trying to make Libya into yet another open air prison is not the solution. One of the major strengths of Western Civilization is creativity and an openness to rational change. The US must, as it did in both world wars and since, again help the parade ground army of France and the currently defanged Germans find a way out of their lethargic bureaucracy to a robust plan to improve the situation in Libya before it's too late. The marines may not need to return again to the shores of Tripoli but positive American influence should.
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