The new Cold War that isn’t

Russia is in a power projection mode while the United States seems to be fumbling in its recent attempts to extend the Pax Americana.  How does this impact Libya and the prospects for peace and stability for the Libyans?  The recent US election has certainly caused a stir among certain factions who see in it a new Trump doctrine of “hands off” or total indifference to the Libyan mess.  The usual suspects among the foreign powers are likely changing their timetables and giving advice to their local actors regarding the next phase of Libyan political and military (d)evolution.

The UN backed government has so far failed to solidify its authority in every region of Libya and even in Tripoli, it seems to be lacking broad support among the populace.  Misratah has so far mostly provided the main serious military opposition to the so-called Libyan National Army based in the Eastern region.  Without rapid economic and security improvement in the West, the Government of National Accord, the UN backed option will end up as the prior experiments did, a wasted and mostly futile effort towards political reconciliation and maturity.

The Eastern region of Libya is the more interesting case in that foreign actors are much more heavily involved in their day to day activities military and otherwise.  Russia has been at the forefront recently by printing currency for the House of Representatives(HOR) dominated Eastern region which circulates along with the British printed currency utilized by the Western based Central Bank of Libya.  Russia, Egypt, the UAE and even France are reportedly involved with supplying, air strikes, weapons, or military advisors for the Hefter led Libyan National Army.  Effectively, the HOR provides a political fig leaf for Hefter and his recent efforts to install military governors across the Eastern Region.  Russia flush with their recent military victories in Syria are expected to try and increase their sphere of influence across the Middle East. 

Col. Gadhafi officially ended the British and American military presence in Libya and it seems his carbon copy, Col. Hefter, wants to welcome the Russian Bear into Libya with open arms.  From a failed and laughable coup attempt in 2014, Mr. Hefter has used the anti-Muslim Brotherhood narrative to great effect.  The UAE is the front man for the likely GCC produced project to if not destroy their main opposition among Sunni Muslims, at least severely weaken it.  Hefter, if he succeeds, will ensure that Libya returns to one party or one family rule.  His retrograde thinking is a relic of his generation’s love of the mythic strongman.  The Father figure who can bring the peace and stability of the open-air prison of a police state.  He promises to recreate the state of the Jamahiriya but without the solid green flag, or at least not such a monochrome flag being front and center. 

Qatar is purportedly, along with Turkey, backing the Western factions of Libya or at least the ones a more religious outlook.  However, Qatar is busy readying itself for the World Cup and Turkey since the coup attempt of 2016 is spinning away from a NATO centric policy and oddly threatening to move towards the Russian orbit.  The Obama administration failed in Syria and allowed Russia’s Putin to outfox them and defend their interests at the cost of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians and the creation of many refugees who are now causing Europe extensive political problems. 

What are Russia’s strategic interests in Libya.  Certainly, they want to recreate or recover their lost relationship with Libya which they enjoyed prior to the Revolution of 2011.  Russia has economic and military objectives in Libya.  Russia lacks an official military installation in the African continent and they apparently were alarmed by the wave of reform brought about by the Arab Spring.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said:  "The chain of 'color revolutions' spreading across the Middle East and Africa has been broken,"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-shoigu-idUSKBN14B1AC

And Russia has financially backed Hefter and his scheme: “Russia printed 4 billion Libyan dinars ($2.8 billion) on contract for the [Eastern] Libyan central bank -- and transferred it to an eastern city that is loyal to the military chief. The money is being used across the country except for Tripoli and the western Misrata region, a hotbed of anti-Haftar sentiment.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/putin-promotes-libyan-strongman-as-new-ally-after-syria-victory

The absence of a coherent European Union(EU) project to stabilize Libya is also puzzling but perhaps expected given the almost rudderless foreign policy strategy of the European political committee.  Brexit and larger world concerns have caused the Libyan portfolio to drop down their priority list but this is a mistake.  Russia is a cunning world player and sees the opportunity to increase its influence in the MENA and encircle western Europe.  The EU should circle their wagons and remind France especially that to hitch their wagon to a Russian backed Hefter is a misguided strategy at best and a major miscalculation at worst.

The United States must now allow Putin’s Russia to encircle Europe via the Balkans, Anatolia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and exploit their ties with Iran to further erode the NATO alliance.  The future is created in the present and a future with a resurgent and violent Russia is not an idyllic outcome for Libya or the NATO states in general.  The US must take steps to bolster democratic factions in Libya and help it to follow the Tunisia model rather than the bankrupt Egyptian model.  The Libyans grew tired of empty slogans during the Gadhafi regime and the elderly and opportunist Hefter is not a long-term solution for the Libyan puzzle.  NATO, and specifically the United States should work harder to enable pragmatic, positive, and rational political improvement in Libya and a rebooted Jamahiriya with Col. Hefter and his newly commissioned officer son at the helm would be a disaster for all involved.

List of external Russian Military bases

The New Libyan Constitution and the political environment

The origin of the current Libyan quagmire (short version)

In 1969 Libya went through major change that initially heralded a new and more egalitarian future.  However, the ever opportunistic Gadhafi, his tribe, and their allies wasted little time to fully consolidate their power and monopolize Libya as their fiefdom.  Libyans generally were trained to be a passive and reactive people by the Ottomans, Italians, the Senussi monarchy, and then the reign of Gadhafi extended the lack of reasonable political participation by the average Libyan.  The young and newly installed Gadhafi put on a show of empowering various sectors of his society and all the while trying to pit them against each other, rich versus poor, home owner versus renter, young against old, and even parents and their children were not immune  to his paranoid police state and its bizarre wedge politics.  Gadhafi had claimed that hereditary rule was incompatible with true political theory and doctrine but he was more than willing to have his sons take over the family business when he was good and ready. 

It took 42 years before events transpired whereby Gadhafi finally lost his franchise over the Libyan nation and his family was forced to flee.  Many Libyans rejoiced and exiles returned ostensibly to help first the revolution and then the transition to a new democratic Libya.  Senussi monarchy nostalgia was again in the open and the new General National Congress(GNC) government squandered billions in cash grants, theft, waste, corruption, and criminal negligence on a scale that is yet to be properly documented.  In spite of the chaos and GNC missteps, most Libyans believed that Libya was on the way to political pluralism and progress. 

The post 2011 environment

The number of political parties bloomed and Libyan were free to discuss politics and vote in mostly free and fair elections for the first time in decades.  Regional politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood variety which originated in neighboring Egypt became a large part of the discussion as well as a so called secularist party grouping led by prominent former Gadhafi advisor and rebel NTC leader during the 2011 revolution, Mahmoud Gibril.  The dominant narrative which was fostered was that the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Justice and Construction(AB) party, was actually a front for Egyptian based interests.  The scapegoating reached such an extent that many blamed the AB for almost anything that went wrong in Libya and their opponents used their political naiveté and the lack of economic and social progress in Libya to paint them in a fairly bad light.  Make no mistake, the AB and their allies share some of the blame for the political failures that have led us to the current crisis but they are not the main source of concern that many critics and analysts make them out to be. 

The average Libyan was quick to point out the lack of reliable electrical service, security, modern healthcare, education, and infrastructure in Libya.  In a world where 5G cell phone service is around the corner, Libyans are stuck in a 2G time warp and they need to have two government owned cell phone carriers to provide what passes for complete cell phone reception.  The political landscape in Libya in 2012-2016 rapidly deteriorated into an almost farcical and fractious group of Congressmen and women who achieved little but spending money on things that didn’t provide long term benefit for their constituents.  The political anarchy helped create a country where multi-million dollar bank heists were only rivaled by the billions of dollars that disappeared into thin air or were used to purchase arms from the UAE and other sources that were then used in various internecine shooting matches between various competing regional or even private militias.  A small hamlet named Zintan which performed admirably in the 2011 revolution apparently was rewarded with control of the capital’s airport which soon became a money making enterprise not for the State, but for Zintani interests and their militias.  The Libyan second city of Benghazi descended into chaos and the incompetent GNC made the disastrous decision to locate their successor, the House of Representatives(HOR).  To this day, Libyan politicians are paid a princely salary and often are out of the country or don’t show up for work and this includes the members of the defunct GNC and the HOR whose initial term has already expired.

Political theater

Average Libyans put their fail in the new Libyan leadership cadre such as Mgarief, Zidan, and Thinni.  All of these men failed to deliver meaningful and construction improvements in Libya.  If asked, they can say that they were hobbled by the culture of militia and the collapse in oil production.  The Libyan ability to finger point is only rivaled by the near constant strikes and work disruptions staged by unions or tribes or even small groups of disgruntled gunmen.  The trust given to the leadership and their administrations was misplaced and billions, precious time, and even more importantly lives were lost due to the utter incompetence of the nascent Libyan government. 

The US provides a stark contrast to Libya, Americans have the luxury of professional politicians who often work their way up from local to state to national government offices.  Most Americans therefore feel little need to get too involved in politics beyond occasionally voting or perhaps calling their congressman or sending them an email.  In Libya however, carpet baggers, charlatans, and uneducated holdovers from the previous regime comprise the politicians who prey on the hopes and dreams of the novice voters of Libya.  Having amateurs running a modern state is not a good foundation for a progressive and rational government.  Especially for a country like Libya which has been fought over for thousands of years and has vast wealth and potential.

The Tarhouni Constitution

Mr. Ali Tarhouni has been interested in helping create the post-revolution Libyan Constitution since at least 2011.  The oft delayed Constituion has cost millions and has yet to be delivered for the approval or even widespread discussion of its merits.  The release of a “final” draft only creates further cause for concern and begs the question; “Can the Libyans get a refund?”     

The next few months will be critical…

As I write this post, a group of Libyans are meeting under the auspices of the U.N. in Morocco.
Some argue that it is a sham, that the Libyans at the meeting have no real authority even among their respective political blocs back home.  However, this UN sponsored process is the last best hope for a peaceful resolution of the Libyan crisis.  The nascent post-Jamahiriya Libya started off on the wrong foot  and has wasted time, blood, and vast amounts of national wealth due to the lack of the political leadership among the Libyans to find common ground and pragmatic creative solutions to what ails the broken Libyan nation.  Nobody said nation building was easy but the amateur and in some cases criminally negligent efforts of people like Ali Zidan, Thinni, and especially the military adventurism of Mr. Hefter have increased the probability of total collapse of the Libyan experiment.  As a Libyan, I am disheartened to see that the ancient tribal, ethnic, and regional divisions are still alive and well with the added variable of toxic religious zealots adding their own brand of violence to further destabilize Libya.  If the Unity Government takes flight, immediate and positive changes need to take place.

1. The economy needs priority and the oil sector as the lifeblood of the economy needs extra attention.  Production must return to a reasonable level as quickly as possible.  A ban on strikes should be enforced and repair and refurbishment projects initiated.

2. The military needs major reform, removal of the backward thinking and Soviet trained old guard should be accelerated.  Mr. Hefter should be gently pushed aside as he acts as a spoiler and retrograde sensibilities such as his has no place in a future and modern Libya.

3. The health and education sectors also are in a shambles and long term projects undertaken to retain and build up modern health care and education should be started.

4. Border security and verification of citizenship are needed in order to help increase security and reduce welfare and subsidy fraud.

5. Begin a national reconciliation project and engage the populace in an internet/cell phone based app so they can communicate more easily with elected officials or an ombudsman to assist with local issues or questions.

6. Begin the trials of High Value ex-regime and Qaddafi family figures such as Saif al Islam and Saadi Qaddafi, make the trials public, televised, and hold them in Libya but with European Judges who can impartially adjudicate their cases.  The days of Libyan Kangaroo courts must end.

7. Bring in internationally recognized auditors to begin the investigation of the disappearance and probable theft of billions of dollars’ worth of public assets and cash.

8. Begin a campaign of political education among the populace and amateur government officials on the rights and responsibilities of the governed and the governing so that future elections are not merely ignored by an apathetic electorate or treated as a joke by those seeking office.

9. Ensure that term limits and checks and balances on all government posts are instituted so no person can ensconce themselves at the expense of the public good.

10. Begin to decommission all paramilitary groups and either absorb the troops into the Army of Libya or train them for civilian jobs

11. Begin reconstruction of the public space such as Tripoli Airport, clean up Gaddafi’s former stomping grounds Bab Al Aziziya, and create the conditions for large scale rebuilding to start.  Improve the electrical grid and communications and transport networks.

Of course this list is not all inclusive and not meant to be but I hope it can spark some discussion or debate among Libyans who can and should create better ones which can address issues that I have overlooked or are more pressing.  Libya is a nation with a lot of potential and a strategic location but if the Libyans act in a selfish and self-centered manner, the road ahead will be made much more difficult and possibly violent.  It is up to the Libyans to work together and seek help from others where needed.  If Libyans can focus on mutual benefit, rational expectations, and results this will improve the whole of the Middle East as well as Libya. 

  

The Libyan House of Representatives and Hefter's folly

The meteoric rise of Colonel Hefter to his current position as head of the nominal Libyan Armed Forces is astonishing.  In February of 2014 Mr. Hefter attempted to coup his way to the top, when that failed and after being laughed off the political and official military stage, Hefter tried a different route to the seat of power.  The General National Congress created the Frankenstein monster of the Libyan House of Representatives(HOR) and for reasons which still are not clear, decided that it was going to convene in Benghazi, Libya's second city but also then, as now, one of the more dangerous and lawless areas in Libya.  The HOR set up shop in Tobruk instead when it became clear that Benghazi wasn't able to host them properly.

Tobruk is a historical city but one that is not an obvious choice to accommodate the hopes and dreams of Libya's political future.  What it does have, is the protection and proximity to both Hefter and one of his main patrons, Egypt.  Many argued that the HOR needed to be distanced from the militia machinations of Tripoli.  While on the face of it that makes sense, the HOR avoided overt influence from Tripoli or Misratah based militias and instead fell into the Hefter and allied militia orbit.

The current UN sponsored talks are the last best hope to break both factions from the tractor beam like death spiral they have found themselves in but the Hefter led military attacks near Tripoli show that the HOR is not negotiating in good faith.  It has become apparent that the HOR no longer represents the political aspirations or will of the voters but has instead become too much under the spell of Hefter and his foreign backers.

The best and most logical solution to the Libyan dilemma is a political one that respects the majority of Libya's citizens rights and creates the framework for reducing the threat posed by the security vacuum and provides lasting stability.  Libyans suffered for decades from the mafia like political scene created by Ghaddafi which has helped create fertile ground for the current mess Libyans find themselves mired in.

The HOR must negotiate in good faith and remember that they represent all Libyans and not just the 15% of the electorate that put them in office.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/libya-peace-talks-verge-collapse-150321231034000.html

The Swamps of Libya

 

Libya is currently witnessing a very strange set of facts. Col. Hefter, an almost comical figure who returned to Libya in 2011 from his forced retirement and exile in Langley Virginia, who has reinvented himself as a self-styled General and military adventurer who is battling Islamist and allied militia in and around Benghazi. Tripoli is witnessing heavy fighting which has killed dozens, heavily damaged the main airport in the capital, Tripoli, and has caused massive misery, injury, and death among the civilian population. Oil, which is the lifeblood of the economy, is flowing at reduced rates and is yet to recover to normal production levels after the head of the Petroleum Facility Guard, Mr. Jadhran, decided he knew better than the central authorities and started a mutiny under the guise of safeguarding the oil resources and demanding reform. Added to this mix are the secretive activities of Mr. Mahmoud Jebril, the purported head of a political party who acts more like a James Bond villain straight out of Central Casting.

Libya is on the verge of a general civil war and in the midst of all the violence and anarchy, elections were recently held for a successor to the General National Congress which replaced the National Transitional Council which was formed in 2011 during the revolution against the regime of Col. Gadhafi. This new body has started holding closed door meetings far from the historical capital of Libya apparently in an attempt to satisfy Eastern Libya's demands for more power and relevance in Libyan power politics. While the desire for privacy on the part of the novice Congressmen and women is understandable, it will feed the ever present Libyan rumor mill which in the era of social media is now digitally enhanced and moves at light speed.

The Central Authorities of Libya have failed to deliver basic services to their constituents. They have steadily increased public sector expenditures and have helped grow the monster that is the militia/paramilitary culture which is the source of so much trouble in post Jamahiriya Libya. How did the 2011 revolution produce such a surreal state of affairs? Well, a full answer to this complex situation is beyond the scope of this blog but will attempt to address some issues that have contributed to the current state of affairs. First and foremost, the structure and design of the institution of the GNC dominated government itself is a major problem. Libya, with no history of real democracy with free and fair involvement by citizens in running their own affairs decided on a 200 person legislature which would then select a Prime Minister who would pick his or her own Ministers to manage the various Ministries of state. There was no clear cut delineation or delegation of powers between the "President" of the GNC and the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister was not the leader of a political party or the leader of the group holding the most seats in the GNC. This was and is a recipe for disaster. Instead the voters should have been given the right to vote for a national President with real executive powers including the ability to veto legislation passed by the GNC. The "bully pulpit" of a single executive is important to help inform and shape public policy as the often absent members of the GNC were not up to the task. The GNC also failed to decide upon a date certain for the end of their term. They apparently thought they should work until a Libyan Constitution was approved by the voters.

A Constitution is extremely important but there was and is no need to wait for a formal constitution to clearly state and enforce a set of basic rights that each citizen has. The Libyan social compact doesn't need to be a formal document but the average citizen needs to be told what they can and should expect from the temporary authorities so they can also determine what the post constitutional authorities have to build upon for the more permanent societal and governmental structures. As I write this, the constitutional convention is supposedly hard at work crafting the rough draft, the committee also seems to value their secrecy which may be security related but again, their silence breeds speculation which doesn't bode well for stability and a smooth process of approving and ratifying the constitution at some point in the future.

One of the more intractable problems facing the Libyans is the growth of the militias which sprouted up during and after the 2011 revolution. There is some evidence that individual members of the GNC or even the Prime Minister helped to fund and lead them. Most militia members were given a monthly stipend from state coffers. Why was the state financing such a violence prone group of men? The answer is not clear and of course there are various reasons but one of the main ones could be that the GNC didn't want to trigger further violence by stopping the payments which in effect were a form of extortion. But one of the consequences of this is that the official armed forces were not the only ones with military grade weapons, uniforms, or state sponsorship. One city even tried to follow the example of the tribe of Gaddafi and tried to monopolize any training offered by foreign powers so as to increase their own military prowess at the expense of regional rivals. Is there a solution to the militia problem?

Perhaps a general amnesty for those that want to turn in military weapons and hardware should be announced. All militias and persons who wish to join the national armed forces should be allowed to join the official armed forces after a rational vetting process. They should be given basic training and then an agreement reached with a foreign power to provide air support in order to decommission or destroy any other non-state armed formation which refuses to stand down or is engaged in violence.

Finally, I hope that the new legislature doesn't fall into the same trap and lose sight of the goals and aspirations of the Libyan nation. They are the representatives of the people and must work to improve the lives of the people of Libya and have to overcome the tribal, generational, religious, and regional differences that so far have caused Libya to become a place that is to be lamented instead of celebrated.

 

The political conundrum that is Libya...

"All Libyans are to blame for the utter failure of the political leadership..."  This is an oft repeated phrase I have seen when people discuss the disastrous state of politics as practiced in Libya.  While this sounds poetic and democratically valid it is also wrong.  If everyone is to "blame" then no-one is to "blame."  While it is possible that all Libyans are at fault, some bear more guilt than others.  For example, most Libyans didn't vote and the ones that did were total novices when it comes to the democratic system and its concomitant processes.  They faced a bewildering array of candidates and political parties during the brief run-up to the July 2012 elections.

Choice is a must when it comes to Democracy, however too much choice is not the ideal way to foster good electioneering and the actual voting process.  Not enough time was given to voter education and campaigning was haphazard which might have been heavily impacted by the lack of civic groups, voter forums, or town-hall debates to introduce candidates and their respective platforms.

Modern political campaigns use both art and science to help sway voters and educate them at the same time.  Libyan society is not used to democratic political tricks, advertising, or even how the media has an influence on voter turnout and voting patterns.  This will take some time to develop among the populace but the political parties themselves shoulder the majority of the blame for the state of anarchy that exists in Libya.  As a Libyan-American, I care most about what happens in both nations.  Also as a person who has grown up and spent the majority of my life in the USA, I have grown to admire and respect the political system created to serve the citizens of the USA.  I think it serves as a good model for Libya and something we should learn from.

Let me give you an example:  Why is it that the USA, which allows for many different political parties, is dominated by only two?  The short answer is that this is the most stable and efficient system.  Historically Democrats have pandered to the lower classes and Republicans to the Middle and Upper Classes.  However, both parties, especially after the demise of the Communist alternative, now have relatively similar economic platforms.  Whether or not that is due to external manipulation by Corporate interests is debatable but that is beyond the scope of my article.  Socially, they are very dissimilar.  One is very liberal and the other is much more conservative.  One is associated with racial minorities and the other has in the past been associated more with WASPs and other religiously oriented groups.

Libya would benefit by having social conservatives/nationalists unite into one party and liberals and secularists into another.  They can compete for votes and prepare and communicate their vision and goals to the Libyan nation and let the voters decide for themselves what course they'd like to take.  The important thing to remember is social change or "evolution" is not a linear progression.  It can zigzag and be more of an oscillation between liberal and conservative poles.  The main reason fanatics of either stripe are especially poor leaders of a polyglot society is that they are too stubborn or stuck to their one way or the highway type of thinking.  Pragmatic approaches must be found that allow for flexibility, innovation, and ethics to predominate among leaders of the New Libya.

Political parties serve a critical function by vetting and organizing candidates so that there is a coherent choice that voters can make.  Who wants to see fifty candidates for president each represented by a symbol and the cutest logo or symbol is the one that gets the most votes.  Political parties also craft their own platform and have the means to keep their party members in line or kick them out of the party as the case may be.  There are many ways to solve the political crisis in Libya and my hope is that steps are taken to remedy the problems as soon as possible.

Benghazi suffered under Gaddafi

There, I said it. I will also say that to varying degrees, Tripoli, Misratah, Zintan, Zawia, and all Libya suffered under Gaddafi. In fact, many families were forced to live in exile and countless others suffered due to the regime of Gaddafi. Why is this almost self-evident and obvious point important, because to this day, this is the most cited reason for Barcan semi-separatists when they are asked why they want Federalism. Sure they will also say that centralization hasn't benefited them and that's probably also true to an extent. But is the central authority they are referring to during Gaddafi time or the “central” authority post-Qaddafi? Because this, like too many things in the current Libya is as clear as mud.

Federalism is a wonderful system of government because it allows for customization of local rules and provides organizational flexibility. However, this is best suited for a nation that requires flexibility. The best example is the USA which resembles an empire more than a classically defined republic. For example, the USA has the territory of Puerto Rico which is not a state but its residents enjoy most of the benefits of statehood without the need to blemish the flag of the USA by adding an imbalance to the field of fifty stars. Federalism is more easily ramped up to accommodate territorial expansion which as any reader of history knows, is exactly the policy the original thirteen colonies pursued.

The proponents of Federalism face a quandary, they need the central authorities to lose legitimacy and be seen as inept and distant. But at the same time they are walking the razor's edge due to the need to pay lip service to their current stated aim of “semi-independence.” They in effect gain support and adherents each time the leadership in Tripoli lose face or suffer another calamity. The federal faction can passively or actively place roadblocks to the unitary trend and therefore gain more impetus for their federalism agenda.

I believe that federalism is the wrong political doctrine for Libya at the present time. Federalism is also a clear and present danger to the integrity of the state of Libya. The proponents of federalism must make the case for the need to radically change the political dynamic for Libya and prove that their demand for experimental radicalism will benefit the Libyan nation.